P0035 - Incidence, Incidence-Based Mortality, and Survival Rates of Pancreatic Cancer Based on the Extent of Disease: A SEER-Based Study

Calvin Ghimire, MD¹, Manasik Abdu, MD², Pujan Kandel, MD³, Alexander Rabadi, MD⁴, Matthew Jankowski, MD¹, Dheeraj Alexander, MD⁴, Sajana Poudel, MD⁵, Bibek Karki, MD⁶, Pradip Chaudhary, MD⁶, Arvind Kunadi, MD⁴, Mustafa Alnounou, MD, FACG^4
1Michigan State University/McLaren Flint Hospital, Flint, MI; ²University at Buffalo-Catholic Health System, Buffalo, NY; ³Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL; ⁴McLaren Flint Hospital, Flint, MI; ⁵John H. Stroger, Jr. Hospital of Cook County, Chicago, IL; ⁶Hurley Medical Center, Flint, MI

Introduction: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a leading cause of cancer mortality, especially in developed countries. PC is the 10th most common type of cancer in the US, with about 64,000 fresh cases and 50,000 deaths in 2023. PCs are usually detected late because of their asymptomatic nature and lack of proven screening techniques.

Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 17 registry database, we studied PC trends from 2001-2019 based on incidence, incidence-based mortality (IBM), and survival rates at 2 years. SEER*Stat 8.4.0.1 was used to get age-adjusted rates for different years based on the extent of the disease. Joinpoint regression program 4.9.1.0 was used to analyze the linear regression model.

Results: The incidence rates of localized and distant metastatic disease are increasing from 2004 to 2017 at 4.2%*(95% CI, 3.6 to 4.8, P< 0.001) and 0.3*(95% CI, 0.2 to 0.5, P=0.001) respectively. However, regional metastatic disease rates increased at an alarming rate from 2004 to 2009 at 3.5*(95% CI, 2.3 to 4.7, P< 0.001) and then at 0.8* (95% CI, 0.3 to 1.3, P=0.005) from 2009 to 2017 annually.
IBM rate of localized malignancy increased from 2004 to 2006 at an Annual Percentage Change (APC) of 36.3* (95% CI, 21 to 53.4, P< 0.001), and grew further from 2006 to 2017 at 1.8* (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.6, P=0.001) annually. Similarly, for regional metastatic disease, the rates increased from 2004 to 2006 at an APC of 51.9* (95% CI, 30.9 to 76.2, P< 0.001) and rose further at 1.7* (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.5, P=0.001) till 2017. Among distant metastatic disease, the incidence-based mortality rates trended high from 2004 to 2006 at 18.7* (95% CI, 12.8 to 25, P< 0.001), was stable from 2006 to 2017. IBM rates for all stages decreased from 2017.
Improved survival in localized disease increased at 5.8* (95% CI, 5 to 6.6, P< 0.001) every year from 2004 to 2014, but flatlined later. For regional and distant metastatic disease, steady improvement was noted from 2004 to 2017 at 4*(95% CI, 3.5 to 4.5, P< 0.001) and 3.6*(95% CI, 2.6 to 4.7, P< 0.001) every year respectively.

Discussion: The incidence rate of all PC stages has been increasing. Trend of IBM increased during the initial years, but eventually decrease from 2017 onwards. Survival rates are also improving. Detecting PC at an early stage allows for more effective treatment options and potentially improved outcomes. New techniques in surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, and immunotherapy have increased survival rates in advanced stages.



Disclosures:


Calvin Ghimire, MD¹, Manasik Abdu, MD², Pujan Kandel, MD³, Alexander Rabadi, MD⁴, Matthew Jankowski, MD¹, Dheeraj Alexander, MD⁴, Sajana Poudel, MD⁵, Bibek Karki, MD⁶, Pradip Chaudhary, MD⁶, Arvind Kunadi, MD⁴, Mustafa Alnounou, MD, FACG⁴. P0035 - Incidence, Incidence-Based Mortality, and Survival Rates of Pancreatic Cancer Based on the Extent of Disease: A SEER-Based Study, ACG 2023 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Vancouver, BC, Canada: American College of Gastroenterology.